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Sunday, November 25, 2012

St. Louis at Arizona NFL

It does not seem all that long ago that the Arizona Cardinals were the talk of the NFL after winning their first four games. Things have not gone as well over the last seven weeks. The Cardinals will be looking to snap a six-game slide when they host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. The Rams have not won since Week 5, when they began Arizona’s slump with a 17-3 home victory.

The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in total offense, just seven yards above last-place Jacksonville. The problems have been evenly distributed among the passing and running games, and rookie Ryan Lindley became the third quarterback to have a rough time for Arizona this season when he went 9-for-20 in the loss at Atlanta last Sunday. St. Louis figured to be taking a step forward when it battled San Francisco to a draw in Week 10, but the Rams fell back down in a home loss to the New York Jets last week.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -1. O/U: 37.5

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-6-1): The Rams were done in by three turnovers in the 27-13 loss to the Jets and have given the ball away eight times while going winless in their last five. The offense has failed to make up for the turnovers and the lack of takeaways on the other side, totaling two touchdowns or fewer in three of the last five. Quarterback Sam Bradford threw the ball 44 times on Sunday but ended up with only 170 yards on 23 completions. The former No. 1 overall pick has been held under 200 yards four times in 2012. One of those came in Week 5 against the Cardinals, when Bradford went 7-of-21 for 141 yards. But two of those completions went for touchdowns and the defense stepped up in a 17-3 victory.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-6): Arizona had Kevin Kolb at quarterback in the first meeting with St. Louis and has shuffled through Kolb to John Skelton and now Lindley while trying to find some sort of spark for the offense. Between Skelton and Lindley the Cardinals managed a total of 178 yards at Atlanta last week (41 passing). The defense did its part by forcing six turnovers but Arizona blew a 13-0 first-quarter lead in the 23-19 setback. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has yet to name a starter at quarterback for this week but will likely stick with Lindley after yanking Skelton in the second quarter against the Falcons. The bright spot on offense has been running back LaRod Stephens-Howling, who rushed for 127 yards last week and has gone over 100 yards in two of the last four contests.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Kolb (ribs, shoulder) would get the start if healthy but is expected to miss his fifth straight game.

2. Arizona CB Patrick Peterson ran a punt back 99 yards in overtime in the last meeting in Glendale, giving the Cardinals a 19-13 victory on Nov. 6, 2011.

3. Rams WR Danny Amendola (foot) is questionable.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Arizona here to win.

San Francisco at New Orleans. NFL

A one-week injury may have been all it took for Alex Smith to lose his job as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against the New Orleans Saints. Smith has been demoted to second-team reps in practice by head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was left impressed by Kaepernick's performance in Monday's 32-7 drubbing of the Chicago Bears.

Kaepernick's second NFL start will pit him against one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. As expected, Brees has been the catalyst - he torched the Oakland Raiders for three scores in a Week 11 victory and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. He'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: 49ers -1, O/U: 48

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-2-1)
: As Smith sat recovering from a concussion, Kaepernick staked his claim to the starting role with 243 passing yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's vaunted defense. Kaepernick was given a ringing post-game endorsement by tight end Vernon Davis, who finished with six catches for 83 yards and a score. "I felt like somebody took the handcuffs off me," said Davis, who had amassed just nine catches for 101 yards in his previous four contests - all with Smith at the helm.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-5): While New Orleans' offense continues to roll over the opposition, the defense has made quiet strides during the team's current winning streak. The Saints kept Oakland at bay in a 38-17 victory on Sunday and has surrendered an average of 19 points over its last three games. Running back Darren Sproles has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks with a broken hand. Sproles will be a popular option for Brees in what becomes a muddled backfield.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers, with 12 touchdowns, two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 107.2.

2. San Francisco linebacker Aldon Smith's 5 1/2 sacks against Chicago give him 29 in his first 26 NFL games, the most by any player over that time frame.

3. The 49ers lead the all-time series 45-24-2.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with New Orleans to win here in a shoot out. Playing the over here might be wise also.

MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO

For whatever Chicago fans think of enigmatic quarterback Jay Cutler, the Bears' performance without him was among their worst of the season. Cutler is hoping to return Sunday when Chicago hosts the Minnesota Vikings in a pivotal NFC North matchup. The 29-year-old is recovering from a concussion suffered in Week 10, and was on the sidelines in favor of Jason Campbell for Chicago's 32-7 clunker in San Francisco last weekend.

The Vikings have their own injury issues, with wide receiver Percy Harvin a question mark as he struggles with an ankle injury. Harvin, who has been Minnesota's biggest passing threat this season, was ready to practice Wednesday but was rebuffed by head coach Leslie Frazier. Minnesota is coming off a Week 11 bye after handling the Detroit Lions 34-24 a week earlier behind 171 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: OFF. O/U: N/A

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-4): Minnesota has lost its last five meetings with Chicago, and will undoubtedly have an easier time ending that streak with someone other than Cutler under center. Cutler has gone 5-1 with a career QB rating of 100.8 against the Vikings. Peterson will face his stiffest test of the season against a stout Chicago run defense allowing just 95.2 yards per game on the ground. Peterson, less than a year off major knee surgery, leads the NFL with 1,128 rushing yards - 629 of those coming in his last four games.

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-3): Nobody missed Cutler more than his favorite target, Brandon Marshall. The veteran wideout came into Monday's game against the 49ers averaging 115 receiving yards with five touchdowns over his previous six games, but had just two catches for 21 yards and a score with Jason Campbell as the starting QB. Minnesota is in the middle of the pack in pass defense, surrendering an average of 229.1 yards through the air. Chicago running back Matt Forte was limited to 21 carries for 63 yards against San Francisco.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Peterson has 823 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in eight career meetings with Chicago.

2. Chicago's defense and special teams have accounted for seven touchdowns so far this season, the third-most in NFL history.

3. The Bears have reportedly demoted second-year right tackle Gabe Carimi after he was torched for 5 1/2 sacks by 49ers defensive end Aldon Smith. Jonathan Scott will take Carimi's spot on the offensive line.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with the vikings here.

OAKLAND AT CINCINNATI. NFL

The Cincinnati Bengals have won back-to-back games to pull to .500 and put themselves in position to contend for a playoff spot down the stretch. The Bengals, who had dropped four in a row to fall off the map, have outscored their last two opponents by a combined 40 points. That’s bad news for the Oakland Raiders, who visit Cincinnati on Sunday. The Raiders have allowed an average of 45 points in dropping three straight games.

Cincinnati enters the weekend one game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts in the wild card hunt and appears to be hitting its stride. Andy Dalton has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games and has gotten plenty of help from a defense that has forced five turnovers in that span. The Raiders have been trounced in three straight games to fall to last in the NFL in scoring defense at 32.2 points. That has put more pressure on quarterback Carson Palmer, who will be making his first start in Cincinnati since forcing his way out in a trade last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bengals -9.5. O/U: 49

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-7): Palmer informed the Bengals that he would rather sit out than play for their team anymore prior to the 2011 campaign, leading to Cincinnati drafting Dalton in the first round and eventually shipping Palmer to Oakland for a handful of high draft picks. Palmer threw 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions as the Raiders dropped six of their last 10 in 2011 to fall out of playoff contention. He has been more efficient in 2012 with 17 touchdowns and 11 picks but has had to do most of the heavy lifting himself with the defense in shambles and his top two running backs struggling through ankle sprains. Palmer has thrown for 1,094 yards, eight touchdowns and six picks during the three-game slide. The Oakland defense has been picked apart by opposing quarterbacks while also allowing 14 rushing scores - tied for second-most in the NFL.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (5-5):
Cincinnati was left for dead during its four-game slide but turned its season around with a 31-13 win over the New York Giants in Week 10 before taking care of business in a 28-6 triumph at Kansas City last Sunday. Dalton has found A.J. Green for a touchdown pass in nine straight games and has the passing offense up to 10th in the league. A bigger aspect of the turnaround in the last two games might be the pass defense. Rookie cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick - taken with one of the draft picks received in the Palmer trade - finally got on the field Week 9 and has helped Terrence Newman, Nate Clements and company lock down opposing wide receivers.

EXTRA POINTS


1. Raiders RB Darren McFadden (ankle) is running at practice and is questionable. Backup RB Mike Goodson (ankle) is further away.

2. Dalton has already matched his TD total from last season (20) and is on pace to eclipse his yardage total (3,398) from his 2011 rookie campaign.

3. Oakland released starting LB Aaron Curry on Tuesday.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Oakland +9 here.

Monday, November 12, 2012

CLEVELAND AT BROOKLYN NBA - my pick

The Cleveland Cavaliers will wind up a six-game road trip when they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday. The Cavaliers have dropped three consecutive games, but probably feel they have deserved a better fate after losing a buzzer-beater in Milwaukee and blowing a 26-point lead at Phoenix. Brooklyn has bounced back to win two straight after a home-and-home sweep of Orlando in which they limited the Magic to 68 and 74 points, respectively.
The Nets have been playing shorthanded due to injuries to starting forward Gerald Wallace and reserve guard MarShon Brooks, but they were able to exploit the ailing Magic by jumping out to big first-half leads in both victories. The young Cavaliers are in the midst of a stretch that has the team playing 10 of 13 games away from home and will culminate with three sets of back-to-backs in the next two weeks.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Ohio (Cleveland), YES (New York)
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (2-5): With first-round draft pick Tyler Zeller sidelined with a concussion and fractured cheekbone, Cleveland coach Byron Scott has bemoaned the lack of production from his bench. The one exception has been guard Daniel Gibson, who is averaging 15.7 points in the past three games while connecting on 10 of 20 from 3-point range. "Boobie has been great," Scott said of Gibson. "I know we're missing Tyler, but we need somebody else to just step up."
ABOUT THE NETS (3-2): Expectations started to soar in Brooklyn following the offseason acquisition of shooting guard Joe Johnson, but the six-time All-Star has struggled to make an impact through his first five games. A career 17.7 scorer, Johnson is averaging 13.6 points and has topped 14 points only once. His shooting percentage (36.2) is also well down from his career mark of 44.3, but he's not overly concerned. “Sooner or later we’ll figure it out ... and we’ll be fun to watch,” he said.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Cleveland here +6. Kinda want to take them to win straight up, but I won't. But I like them very much plus the 6. Coach Byron Scott recently lit a match under his bench players. I expect them to come out be aggressive!

Sunday, November 11, 2012

CLEVELAND AT OKC NBA - my pick

The Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t hit their stride yet as they go for their fourth straight victory when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant isn’t happy with the energy the squad is playing with despite the winning streak. “Sometimes the scoreboard can be deceiving, the stat sheet can be deceiving, but we have high standards here,” Durant said. “That’s what we’ve got to live up to – what we think of ourselves.”

Cleveland is playing the fifth contest of a six-game road trip. The Cavaliers are 1-3 on the excursion after blowing a 26-point second-quarter lead and falling 107-105 to the Phoenix Suns on Friday. “We had a big lead and we didn’t play smart,” Cleveland center Anderson Varejao said. Oklahoma City defeated the Detroit Pistons 105-94 on Friday behind a career-best 25 points from Serge Ibaka. The Thunder are 3-1 at home.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, FSN (Cleveland, Oklahoma City)

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (2-4):
The meltdown against the Suns was highly disappointing and prevented Cleveland from reaching the .500 mark. Guards Dion Waiters (23 points, three 3-pointers) and Daniel Gibson (19 points, five three-pointers) shot well from long range. “We need to understand – when we’re up a certain amount, you have to play the game a certain way,” Gibson said. “When you’re down, you have to play a certain way. It’s the pains you hate to go through, but in the process, we’re going to be a whole lot better for it.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER (4-2):
Russell Westbrook is averaging 18.2 points but has topped 20 just once. The All-Star guard had just 10 points against Detroit and is shooting just 32.3 percent from the field over the past four games. Overall, Westbrook is shooting 36.4 percent, a sharp decline from the career-best 45.7 mark he posted last season. Westbrook’s shaky play forced coach Scott Brooks to give backup Eric Maynor a lot of playing time in the fourth quarter against the Pistons. Maynor finished with 13 points in 17-plus minutes.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Cleveland is 3-1 in its last four visits to Oklahoma City, including a 96-90 victory last season.

2. Durant had 25 points and 13 rebounds against Detroit for his fourth double-double of the campaign.

3. Varejao has recorded double-doubles in each of his last three games and is averaging 14.0 rebounds.


MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with Cleveland +9.5. I watched Cleveland the other night at Phoenix and I was quite impressed. They did let a 26 point lead slip away and lost the game but still. Dion Waiters looked real good. They have some nice young pieces. I think they can keep it close with anybody but will have problems winning games. I don't think they will beat Okc but by all means I think they can stay within 9.5

MIAMI AT MEMPHIS NBA - my pick

The Memphis Grizzlies have quietly won four straight games in convincing fashion while looking strong on the defensive end. The Grizzlies will get their biggest challenge to that defense on Sunday, when the reigning champion Miami Heat visit. The Heat are riding their own four-game winning streak and lead the NBA in scoring with an average of 107.5 points. Miami will be making its second stop on a six-game road trip.

Memphis could be catching the Heat at the right time, as Dwyane Wade is battling illness and LeBron James is dealing with a balky right knee. James still nearly recorded a triple-double in a win on Friday, with Wade back at the hotel. The Grizzlies have the size to overwhelm Miami on the interior and have Tony Allen on the outside to battle James. Memphis has won by an average of 11.3 points during its winning streak and has allowed only one of its five opponents to reach the century mark.

TV: 6:00 p.m. ET, Sun Sports (Miami), SportSouth (Memphis)

ABOUT THE HEAT (5-1):
Wade is dealing with a nasty cold that kept him away from his teammates on Friday. James banged knees with Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Smith but stayed in the game, finishing with 21 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. The Heat have picked up right where they left off last season and might even be more efficient offensively, with Chris Bosh spending more time in the low post and Ray Allen leading the second unit. Allen is averaging 14.7 points while shooting 59.3 percent from beyond the arc.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (4-1): Memphis suffered a season-opening loss at the Los Angeles Clippers but has been a different team in the last four games, locking down defensively and spreading out the scoring. Zach Randolph is leading the league in rebounding at 15.0 and has recorded at least 15 points and 13 boards in each of the first five games. Allen proved himself as a defensive stopper once again on Friday, holding Houston Rockets guard and NBA leading scorer James Harden to 18 points on 4-of-18 shooting in a 93-85 triumph.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. James and Wade both practiced on Saturday and expect to play Sunday. James has averaged 27.3 points in 17 career games against the Grizzlies.

2. Memphis took the lone meeting last season, 97-82, in Miami behind 14 points and 14 rebounds from Randolph.

3. Grizzlies F Rudy Gay is shooting just 14.3 percent (2 of 14) from 3-point range.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Call me crazy but I am going with Memphis here +2. If they were playing in Miami I would take Miami. But in Memphis I will take the Grizzlies.

OAKLAND AT BALTIMORE NFL - my pick

The Baltimore Ravens don’t have the same elite defense that carried them through the last decade but have been able to scratch out enough close victories to keep their record as the second-best in the AFC. The Ravens’ big weakness is against the run, an area the Oakland Raiders don’t appear to be able to exploit. The Raiders, who rank 31st in the NFL in rushing, will be without their top two running backs when they visit Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. Carson Palmer has racked up some huge passing yardage numbers compensating for the stagnant rushing attack but has also been turnover-prone. The Ravens, who lost cornerback Lardarius Webb and linebacker Ray Lewis to season-ending injuries, do not have as many playmakers on defense but still have collected nine interceptions.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -9.5,. O/U 46.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-5): Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are dealing with ankle sprains and have been ruled out for Sunday, leaving third-string running back Taiwan Jones and fullback Marcel Reese to share the load. Palmer was forced to throw 61 passes last Sunday after both running backs went down, completing 39 for 414 yards and four touchdowns. But as has been the case this season, Palmer also threw three interceptions and Oakland suffered a 42-32 setback to Tampa Bay. Palmer has 13 touchdown passes and eight interceptions and has had trouble connecting on deep routes. The Raiders' defense ranks in the bottom third of the NFL and has surrendered an average of 27.8 points in four road games, with the only win away from O.co Coliseum coming at lowly Kansas City in Week 8.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (6-2): Baltimore has succeeded in winning the games it is supposed to win but has not been strong statistically, leading to some concern from the coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees moved up into the press box after the bye week and oversaw one of the better performances since Lewis and Webb went down in last week’s 25-15 win at Cleveland. The Ravens grabbed a pair of interceptions and were strong in the red zone. Baltimore has talked all season about getting running back Ray Rice the ball more and he ended up with 25 carries for 98 yards and a score in Cleveland. Joe Flacco has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games but has been much better at home in 2012. The Ravens will need to work to not overlook the Raiders with a showdown against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers looming next week.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Palmer is 9-4 in his career against the Ravens, all while he was with the Cincinnati Bengals.

2. Baltimore has won 14 straight regular-season home games, the longest current streak in the NFL.

3. Rice (4,999) needs one yard to join Jamal Lewis (7,801) as the only players in Ravens history to rush for 5,000 yards.







MONEYLINE COVERS - I like the raiders +9.5 here.

HOUSTON AT CHICAGO NFL - my pick

A potential Super Bowl preview will take center stage Sunday night when the Houston Texans take the best record in the AFC into Soldier Field to face the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. Houston rebounded nicely from its lone loss against Green Bay, pounding Baltimore before its bye week and coming back from the week off to beat Buffalo last week. The Texans rank second in the league in scoring offense (29.6) and fourth in scoring defense (17.1). 
Houston's balance on both sides of the ball does not create a mismatch for the Bears, though. Chicago ranks third in scoring offense (29.5) and second in scoring defense (15.0). The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss also came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. The Texans have won both previous meetings - 31-24 at home in 2008 and 24-5 in Chicago in 2004. 
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bears -1, O/U 41
ABOUT THE TEXANS (7-1): Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. Quarterback Matt Schaub is likely to have to put the ball in the air quite a bit, though, because the Bears rank sixth in the league against the run. Schaub is 11-1 with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions in his past 12 games. 
ABOUT THE BEARS (7-1): Chicago has gone as its quarterback and defense go, which so far has been stellar. Jay Cutler has faced his ups and downs, but he has developed a strong rapport with receiver Brandon Marshall, who leads the NFC with 797 receiving yards on 59 catches. The defense has helped the offense too, not only by forcing so many turnovers but also by turning them into touchdowns. Chicago has taken seven interceptions back for touchdowns. 
EXTRA POINTS
1. Schaub needs 146 passing yards to reach 20,000 in his career. 
2. Including playoff games, Cutler's teams are 26-0 when he has a rating of 100 or higher. 
3. Houston RB Arian Foster has scored at least one touchdown in 10 consecutive games and has topped 10 rushing scores for the third consecutive season.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I going with Houston -1

TENNESSEE AT MIAMI NFL - my pick

Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams didn't mince words after watching his team get taken to task in a lopsided loss last week. The Titans will look to give their 89-year-old owner a much better showing on Sunday when they visit South Beach to face the upstart Miami Dolphins. After getting blitzed 51-20 by Chicago, the Titans received a bit of good news as quarterback Jake Locker has been cleared for contact for the first time since dislocating his non-throwing shoulder on Sept. 30.
Barring a setback this week, Locker will get the nod over veteran Matt Hasselbeck, but the Titans certainly need for their beleaguered defense to make a stand. Although he doesn't receive the fanfare of Indianapolis' Andrew Luck or Washington's Robert Griffin III, Dolphins rookie Ryan Tannehill has quietly put together a solid season. The eighth overall pick of the draft, Tannehill hasn't committed a turnover since Sept. 30 (98 attempts).
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Dolphins -6, O/U 44
ABOUT THE TITANS (3-6): Adams declared that Tennessee was "grossly outcoached and outplayed" and detailed that everyone was "on notice" following last week's debacle. Such is life for a club that has seen five of its six losses come by at least 21 points. Chris Johnson provided the lone bright spot against Chicago after scampering for an 80-yard touchdown, albeit with the outcome clearly decided.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-4): Tannehill completed 22 of 38 passes for 290 yards and a touchdown, but Miami saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 23-20 setback to Indianapolis last week. Although Reggie Bush found the end zone, the Dolphins' rushing game is limping along at a paltry 3.8 yards per carry. Bush excelled in his lone meeting with Tennessee as the then-New Orleans Saints tailback scored twice in a game on Sept. 24, 2007.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Miami posted a 29-17 victory over Tennessee in 2010 for its eighth win in 11 meetings.
2. Tennessee WR Nate Washington has collected a touchdown in three of four career games versus Miami.
3. Miami WR Brian Hartline needs three receptions to surpass his career high of 43, which was set in 2010.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I like Miami -6

Saturday, October 27, 2012

NFL PATRIOTS AT RAMS

Tom Brady doesn’t know what to think of his New England Patriots as they stumble into London’s Wembley Stadium for Sunday's matchup with the St. Louis Rams. New England is 4-3 on the season and has added a strong running game to its already potent passing attack. But the Patriots have lost leads in the fourth quarter in two straight games and their depleted secondary has been roasted. New England needed overtime and a little luck to defeat the New York Jets and stay above .500 for the season.

The Rams lost a little zip in their offensive attack when receiver Danny Amendola went down with a collarbone injury in Week 5. Since then, quarterback Sam Bradford has just one TD pass and the Rams have lost two straight. This is technically a home game for the Rams, who are 0-3 away from St. Louis but can expect the crowd to back the internationally popular Patriots.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -7, O/U 47

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-3): Brady said the offense is too inconsistent, evidenced by the fact it has scored just two touchdowns in each of its past two games. But it's the Pats' defense that is clearly the major problem. Four teams have logged season highs in yards gained against New England, which has allowed an average of 338 yards through the air in its last five games. The Patriots played once in London, defeating Tampa Bay 35-7 in 2009. New England has gained 350 yards or more in 16 straight games, tying the 1999-2000 Rams for the NFL record. Wes Welker leads the league with 688 receiving yards and Brady is second in passing with 2,104 yards.

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-4): St. Louis dropped a 30-20 decision to Green Bay last week, the first time it has surrendered as many as 30 points this season. The Rams, who rank a respectable 10th in total defense, had yielded 33 points combined in in their three previous contests. Amendola returned to practice this week but is not expected to play for a few more weeks. He’s missed the past two games but still leads the team in every receiving category.

EXTRA POINTS


1. This is sixth NFL regular-season game in England and the Rams’ first trip to London.

2. Both teams have byes next week.

3. WR Brandon Lloyd was added to the Patriots' injury report (knee) on Wednesday.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with the Rams here -7.  New England will be ready for this game. They keep coming to this division and getting beat. Arizona and Seattle took them down. They will not let it happen again. They will win comfortably!!

NOTRE DAME AT OKLAHOMA

Two of the most storied programs in college football will square off Saturday when No. 7 Oklahoma hosts fifth-ranked and undefeated Notre Dame. While each school has a past that is the envy of any program, the stakes are plenty high in the present with Notre Dame sitting at No. 5 and the Sooners at No. 8 in the BCS standings. Oklahoma has bounced back with a vengeance from its lone loss to Kansas State, rolling up 156 points in lopsided victories over Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas, but it will be facing a defense that ranks second nationally in points allowed at 9.4 per game.

The Fighting Irish, who had gone more than a month without surrendering an offensive touchdown before allowing two in last week's 17-14 win over Brigham Young, are seeking their first 8-0 start since 2002. Notre Dame is 8-1 all-time against the Sooners, including a historic 7-0 win at Oklahoma in 1957 that snapped an NCAA-record 47-game winning streak.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Oklahoma -10

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (7-0): Linebacker Manti Te'o is the leader of the Fighting Irish's lock-down defense, earning mention as a contender for the Heisman Trophy. Four of the Fighting Irish's wins have been by seven points or fewer, but the offense should get a boost with the return of starting quarterback Everett Golson, who missed the BYU game due to a concussion suffered in an overtime win over Stanford on Oct. 13. Golson had thrown for 141 yards and a TD and run for 41 yards before he was injured. Notre Dame leaned on the running game against BYU, getting a career-high 143 yards from Theo Riddick and 114 from Cierre Wood. Still, the Irish's hopes rest on their defense, which is ranked sixth nationally with 280.7 yards allowed and has yet to give up a rushing TD.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (5-1): The Sooners have raised their game since losing to unbeaten Kansas State on Sept. 22. Oklahoma put up 41 points at Texas Tech before trampling archrival Texas 63-21 and crushing Kansas 52-7 last week. Quarterback Landry Jones has thrown for 880 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception during the three-game win streak. Running back Damien Williams has three 100-yard games, including a career-high 167 yards against Texas, and backup quarterback Blake Bell has rushed for eight TDs in four games. Kenny Stills leads the receiving corps with 38 catches and four TDs. DT Stacy McGee returns to the lineup after missing six games due to suspension.

EXTRA POINTS

1. This will mark the second true road game for Notre Dame, which beat Navy in Ireland and Purdue at Chicago.

2. Oklahoma has never lost two home games in one season since Bob Stoops took over the program in 1999.

3. The last meeting between the schools came in 1999, when host Notre Dame prevailed 34-30 to hand Stoops his first loss with the Sooners.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with the Sooners here - 13. I just think Notre Dame has not played a team of this caliber all season and it will show they are not as good as their record and ranking indicate. I mean they BYU almost beat them last week. Oklahoma -13.

UCLA AT ARIZONA STATE

Arizona State on Saturday looks to regroup from a lopsided loss to Oregon when the Sun Devils host UCLA, which did not play last week. Both teams are battling for position atop the Pac-12 South race with five games remaining. The Sun Devils had only two penalties for 10 yards against Oregon last Thursday, but that was the lone highlight from a 43-21 defeat that wasn’t nearly that close. The Bruins' offense ranks 16th in the nation at 505 yards per game and their passing attack is among the best in the conference. They’ll be tested by Arizona State’s stellar pass defense, which leads the nation while allowing an average of 130 yards in the air. While UCLA won last year’s matchup 29-28 on a last-minute touchdown, the Bruins have lost five of their last six games to Arizona State in Tempe.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FX. LINE: Arizona State - 6.5

ABOUT UCLA (5-2, 2-2 Pac-12 South): The Bruins feature a balanced offensive attack, with tailback Johnathan Franklin leading the Pac-12 in rushing at 125 yards per game. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley averages 308 yards of total offense with 14 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, including four in a 43-17 loss at California on Oct. 6. The Bruins’ young offensive line will be challenged by Arizona State, but left tackle Torian White is expected to start after having a minor heart procedure last week. On defense, the Bruins have largely controlled the line of scrimmage while looking for more consistency from their secondary. After recording only 14 sacks in 14 games last season, the Bruins have 24 sacks in seven games this year, including seven by linebacker Anthony Barr.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (5-2, 3-1): The Sun Devils’ strength is its defensive line, which averages four sacks and leads the nation with 9.43 tackles for loss per game. Two key players left with injuries in the first quarter against Oregon, however, and it’s unclear whether Will Sutton (knee) and Junior Onyeali (shoulder) will be available against UCLA. Sutton is third in the nation with 8.5 sacks and fifth in tackles for a loss with 14. Sophomore quarterback Taylor Kelly had thrown 99 consecutive passes without an interception before throwing two against Oregon, and he leads the Pac-12 in passing efficiency. Freshman tailback D.J. Foster leads the Sun Devils in all-purpose yardage (657 yards), while fellow running back Marion Grice has a team-high nine touchdowns.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Arizona State K Alex Garoutte has missed four of his last six field-goal attempts, and could be replaced by sophomore walk-on Jon Mora against UCLA.

2. UCLA has won 11 of its last 12 games when limiting its opponent to less than 100 rushing yards.

3. The Sun Devils have outscored their opponents 78-7 in the fourth quarter this season.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with ASU - 6.5. I do feel very good about this pick. Not that that means a whole lot. Last week I was certain Notre Dame would beat BYU by more than 14 but that didn't happen. I do feel good about this game though. I feel ASU is arguably the 2nd best team in the Pac - 12 but they just don't get no love. They are by no means close to first though. You saw what Oregon did to them last week. Oregon is hand down the 2nd best team in the nation in my opinion. But who is to say Stanford and USC is better than ASU. I am not gona say it. ASU -6.5

BRIGHAM YOUNG AT GEORGIA TECH

The focal point when host Georgia Tech steps out of ACC play to welcome Brigham Young to Bobby Dodd Stadium on Saturday will come when the Yellow Jackets take the ball. Georgia Tech puts the nation’s third-best rushing attack against a Cougars’ run defense that ranks eighth in the country. The Yellow Jackets bring some momentum into the matchup after snapping a three-game losing streak with a 37-17 victory last week over Boston College. The Cougars hope to avoid a three-game skid, having drop consecutive games to then No. 10 Oregon State and then No. 5 Notre Dame. BYU has allowed only 14 points per game this season, and held Notre Dame to 17 last week. Georgia Tech senior quarterback Tevin Washington has rushed for 15 touchdowns this season, second-most by any player this season.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ROOT Sports, FSN, ESPN3.com. LINE: Georgia Tech, -2.5

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (4-4):
BYU’s strength is on defense, where the Cougars are allowing 276.9 yards per game, ranking fourth in the nation. The BYU rush defense allows an average of 93.1 yards, despite giving up 270 rushing yards last week against Notre Dame. Junior linebacker Kyle Van Noy has forced eight career fumbles, including three in eight games this season. Offensively, the Cougars will look to junior wide receiver Cody Hoffman to catch a pass in his 28th consecutive game. Hoffman has four games of 100-plus receiving yards this season. Four BYU offensive linemen have missed time with injuries this season, and senior center Braden Hansen will miss at least two weeks with a groin injury.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (3-4): In their first game since dismissing defensive coordinator Al Groh, the Yellow Jackets allowed only 296 yards in dominating Boston College. But Georgia Tech’s hopes for success revolve around a rushing attack averaging 339.6 yards per contest. Washington has competed 61.6 percent of his passes, and backup quarterback Vad Lee is pushing for more playing time after passing for a score and rushing for a touchdown last week. The Georgia Tech defense has intercepted at least one pass in its past six games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Cougars are 0-3 against ranked teams this season, also losing to Boise State in September.

2. Georgia Tech used two kickers last week - David Scully and Justin Moore - and both struggled. Scully missed practice Monday and Tuesday with a hip injury.

3. The teams have split their two previous matchups, BYU winning in Provo in 2003 and Georgia Tech prevailing in Atlanta in 2002.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with Georgia Tech here - 2.5. 

Friday, October 19, 2012

NFL CLEVELAND AT INDIANAPOLIS

One week after ending one losing streak, the Cleveland Browns try to halt another as they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Cleveland stopped a franchise record-tying 11-game skid with a 34-24 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week as rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden threw a pair of touchdown passes and cornerback Sheldon Brown returned an interception 19 yards for a score. The win was the first since Nov. 20 for the Browns, who enter Week 7 having lost 10 straight road games.
Indianapolis crashed hard after its emotional victory over Green Bay on Oct. 7 as it was trounced by the New York Jets last Sunday. The Colts rallied to top the Packers in the wake of the news that head coach Chuck Pagano was battling leukemia, but showed little fight in a 35-9 loss at New York. Indianapolis allowed a season-high 252 rushing yards and lost defensive end Cory Redding with a right knee injury. The Colts have won eight of their last 11 meetings with the Browns.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts -3.5, O/U 44.
ABOUT THE BROWNS (1-5): Cleveland also ended an 11-game losing streak in 1975 with a triumph over Cincinnati. The Browns held the Bengals to 76 yards on the ground after surrendering 243 yards rushing to the New York Giants a week earlier. Phil Dawson is a perfect 12-for-12 on field-goal attempts this season. Weeden has thrown for 1,519 yards, the second-most by an NFL rookie in his first six games. Carolina's Cam Newton set the record with 1,847 yards last season. Rookie RB Trent Richardson gained 37 yards on 14 carries against Cincinnati before leaving with a rib injury. Richardson, who is expected to play Sunday, leads AFC rookies with 340 rushing yards. Cleveland leads the AFC with 10 interceptions.
ABOUT THE COLTS (2-3): The club hopes to have Robert Mathis back after the Pro Bowl linebacker missed the loss to the Jets with a knee injury. Mathis leads Indianapolis with five sacks. Rookie QB Andrew Luck was 22-of-44 last Sunday, the third time he has completed less than 52 percent of his passes. The Colts are 0-3 in those contests. Luck, who has the fifth-best average in the league with 297.6 yards passing, leads AFC quarterbacks with 103 rushing yards. WR Reggie Wayne is averaging a league-high 118.6 yards per game. He had five catches against New York to raise his career total to 903, making him the 14th player in NFL history to reach the 900-reception mark.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Browns have not won away from home since snapping a five-game slide against the Colts on Sept. 18, 2011, in Indianapolis. Cleveland lost a team-record 11 in a row on the road from Dec. 7, 1974-Sept. 26, 1976.
2. Weeden led Oklahoma State past Luck and Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl last season.
3. The road team has won five of the last six meetings between the clubs.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with Cleveland here +3.5.

NFL DALLAS AT CAROLINA

Coming off a heartbreaking loss, the Dallas Cowboys need something positive - and the Carolina Panthers might be just the team to provide it. The Cowboys have won eight straight meetings between the teams, who will square off Sunday afternoon at Bank of America Stadium. Dallas is looking to rebound from a 31-29 loss at Baltimore in which Dan Bailey missed a 51-yard field goal with two seconds left. The Cowboys' second straight loss further deflated a team that had high expectations after a season-opening win over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Coming off its bye week, Carolina must do something quickly to salvage its season. The Panthers haven't beaten the Cowboys since the teams' first meeting in 1997, but they need to change that to hold out much hope of getting back into the playoff picture. They've lost three straight and are already four games behind NFC South leader Atlanta in the loss column. 
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -2, O/U 45.5
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-3): Dallas has been sound statistically, ranking sixth in total offense and second in total defense, but it hasn't always equated to success on the scoreboard. The Cowboys rank ninth in the league in scoring offense (18.8) and 20th in scoring defense (23.8). Dallas lost running back DeMarco Murray to a foot injury last week, but Felix Jones picked up the slack with 92 yards and a touchdown. Jones is likely to be called upon again, with Murray missing practice Wednesday and Thursday and expected to miss Sunday's game.  
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (1-4): Carolina is still built around quarterback Cam Newton, who leads the team in rushing (209 yards), but that blueprint hasn't been as effective as it was during his rookie season. Newton has thrown five interceptions and he hasn't been able to close out games like he did last year, as Carolina has lost three games by six points or less. The defense has struggled as well, and will have its hands full with Dallas' balanced attack. 
EXTRA POINTS
1. Dallas WR Dez Bryant had a career-high 13 catches and matched his career best with two touchdowns last week. 
2. Carolina WR Steve Smith has topped 130 receiving yards twice against Dallas. 
3. Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware has five sacks in three career games against Carolina. Ware has 97.5 sacks since 2006, the most in the NFL.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with Dallas here -2 and feel very good about it.

NFL JACKSONVILLE AT OAKLAND

The Oakland Raiders will try to climb within one game of idle Denver and San Diego in the AFC West when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Raiders and Jaguars have each lost two straight. While neither team has many playmakers, Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew and Oakland's Darren McFadden are running backs capable of taking over the game. McFadden may have the best chance against the NFL's No. 30 defense against the run (163.0), but is off to a slow start with only 271 yards. Teams are starting to focus more on Jones-Drew, who has accounted for 41 percent of the Jaguars' total yards.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Raiders -4, O/U 43.5

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-4):
Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL at 13.0 points per game and is averaging 241.2 yards. After opponents figure out a way to contain Jones-Drew, there isn't much else to worry about. Second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert leads the league's worst passing offense (142.8 yards) and his completion percentage of 54.8 is 31st. Jones-Drew shares the team lead with 14 receptions and his 81.6 rushing yards per game is above his 74.1 career average, but if the Jaguars do not develop other offensive options, his numbers will likely decline. Jacksonville lost to Chicago 41-3 on Oct. 7 prior to its week off.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (1-4):
  While Oakland's rushing attack is 29th in the NFL at 78.4 yards per game, a healthy McFadden against Jacksonville's suspect defense could improve those numbers. The Raiders, though, could also try to exploit the league's No. 23 passing defense. Quarterback Carson Palmer (62.6 completion percentage, six touchdowns, three interceptions) leads the No. 12 passing offense and may have the opportunity to get his wide receivers more involved as the Jaguars have only three sacks. Tight end Brandon Myers and McFadden lead the team with 21 receptions apiece. Oakland lost at Atlanta 23-20 last week on a 55-yard field goal with 1 second left.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Raiders had season highs of 474 total yards and 149 yards rushing last week.

2. Jones-Drew needs 179 yards from scrimmage to become the 87th player in NFL history to reach 10,000 yards from scrimmage.

3. The Jaguars won the last meeting 38-31 in 2010 on Jones-Drew's 30-yard run with 1:34 left. Jones-Drew rushed for 101 yards while McFadden had 123.


MONEYLINE COVERS - I like Oakland here -4.

NFL BUFFALO AT TENNESSEE

No team in the NFL has been more inconsistent than the Buffalo Bills, who despite their maddening ups and downs are sitting in a four-way tie for first place in the AFC East. The Bills can move above the .500 mark Sunday when they host the Tennessee Titans, who prevented a full-scale spiral by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 11. Buffalo went into Arizona and surprised the Cardinals in overtime last week, rebounding from back-to-back maulings in which the team was outscored 97-31. The Titans also bounced back from a pair of lopsided defeats in beating the Steelers. Tennessee has won four straight and seven of eight meetings with the Bills, including a 23-17 victory at Buffalo last December.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Bills -3, O/U 46

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-3): Buffalo's defense finally came to life in Arizona after it was gashed for 1,201 yards in the previous two games. The Bills limited the Cardinals to 332 yards and registered five sacks - two by free-agent acquisition Mario Williams, who had been a non-factor since signing a six-year, $100 million contract in the offseason. The Bills made a move to fortify the defense by re-signing linebacker Shawne Merriman following a knee injury to DE Mark Anderson. Merriman had 39.5 sacks in his first three seasons with San Diego, but has collected only five in parts of the past four seasons. With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick continuing to struggle, expect the Bills to give the RB tandem of  Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller a heavy workload.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-4): Tennessee has myriad issues, not the least of which has been the startling lack of productivity from star running back Chris Johnson. The former 2,000-yard rusher was held to 24 yards or fewer in four of the team's first five games, but showed signs of breaking out of his doldrums with 91 yards on 19 carries against the Steelers. Johnson ran for 153 yards in last season's win at Buffalo. Veteran Matt Hasselbeck will make his third consecutive start as second-year QB Jake Locker continues to recuperate from a shoulder injury. Hasselbeck has four TDs and four interceptions but he guided the Titans to 10 points in the final 4:19 in the come-from-behind victory over Pittsburgh.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Titans and Bills rank 1-2 in the league in most points allowed with 204 and 192, respectively.

2. Tennessee is 0-3 away from home and has been outscored 106-31.

3. Williams has 5.5 sacks in nine career games against the Titans.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Buffalo here -5.5

NFL GREEN BAY AT ST. LOUIS

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers made a loud statement last week to those predicting the team's demise, dominating the previously unbeaten Houston Texans behind six touchdown passes from the league's reigning MVP. The Packers have yet to win two straight games, so carrying the momentum from the rout in Houston will be the goal when they visit the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. The Rams are coming off a three-point loss in Miami but they have already surpassed last season's victory total behind a defense that has surrendered only 33 points in the last three weeks. The Packers beat the Rams 24-3 last season and have won the last three meetings by a combined 93-34 margin.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -5.5, O/U 45

ABOUT THE PACKERS (3-3): Green Bay finally resembled the team that went an NFL-best 15-1 last week, carving up the Texans behind a spectacular performance by Rodgers. Alex Green rushed for only 65 yards on 22 carries in his first start in place of an injured Cedric Benson, but Green Bay's passing game was unstoppable. Jordy Nelson, who has struggled with the absence of No. 1 wideout Greg Jennings, caught three touchdown passes and hauled in a season-high nine catches for 121 yards. James Jones continues to be a touchdown machine in place of Jennings, hauling in two more scoring passes to give him six in his last three games.

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-3): Slowing down the high-powered Packers will be a major test for St. Louis, which is 3-0 at home but has already lost at Detroit and Chicago - both division rivals of Green Bay. The Rams rolled up a season-high 462 yards - including 162 yards rushing - in the loss to the Dolphins, but they have been far too reliant on rocket-legged rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein, who was perfect through five games before missing on three of five attempts last week (albeit one from 66 yards). Quarterback Sam Bradford threw for a season-high 315 yards and ran for St. Louis' only touchdown in the fourth quarter. He has been sacked 18 times, tied for the third-highest total in the league.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Rodgers became the first QB in franchise history to have six TD passes and zero interceptions.

2. St. Louis is seeking its first 4-0 start at home since going a perfect 8-0 in 2003.

3. Jones joined the legendary Don Hutson as the only Packer receivers with at least two TD passes in three straight games.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Like Green Bay here -5.5.

NFL NEW YORK GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

With their season hanging in the balance the desperate New Orleans Saints came from behind to defeat the San Diego Chargers for their first victory of the season last time out. A week after its bye, New Orleans may get back embattled linebacker Jonathan Vilma as it tries to make it two in a row when it visits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Vilma is getting a one-week reprieve from the bounty scandal before the commissioner rules on the appeal of his suspension.

Josh Freeman and the Bucs set season highs with 145 yards rushing and 318 yards passing in last week’s win 38-10 over Kansas City. Freeman has flourished after a dismal start, completing 60 percent of his passes for 627 yards with four TDs and two picks in his last two games. He’ll have to maintain that pace to change the Bucs’ fate. Tampa Bay has lost 13 of its last 15 games.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -2.5, O/U 49.5

ABOUT THE SAINTS (1-4): Drew Brees set the NFL record by throwing a touchdown pass for the 48th straight game in the Saints’ latest outing. Brees finished with four scoring passes, three of them to Marques Colston. But while New Orleans remains an offensive machine and ranks first in the NFL in passing, its defense has been atrocious. The return of Vilma to practice during the week lit a fire under several of his mates on the defensive unit, which is ranked dead last in the NFL.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-3): The Bucs shut down Jamaal Charles in last week’s rout. Charles, one of the league's top runners, finished with just 40 yards and Kansas City managed just 260 total yards in Tampa Bay's most complete game in a long time. But Brees presents more problems than Brady Quinn did and the Bucs will certainly miss cornerback Aqib Talib, who began serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.Tampa Bay would like to control the ball but rookie running back Doug Martin is off to a disappointing start with 320 yards and one touchdown.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The two teams split the season series last year, each winning at home. 
 
2. Saints tight end Jimmy Graham is questionable with an ankle injury. 
 
3. Tampa Bay is without DE Adrian Clayborn, who was placed on injured reserve.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Like New Orleans here.

NFL ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA

John Skelton returns to his role as Arizona's starting quarterback when the Cardinals visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in a battle of playoff contenders. Skelton won the job from Kevin Kolb coming out of training camp, but promptly sprained his ankle in Week 1. Kolb, a big reason for the Cardinals' 4-0 start, injured his ribs in Arizona's 19-16 overtime loss to Buffalo last week and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. The Vikings were allowing only 15.8 points per game before getting thrashed at Washington 38-26, so a better defensive effort is expected from sack specialist Jared Allen and Co.

TV:
1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings -6.5, O/U 40

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-2): Arizona yielded 22 sacks in the last three games - and an NFL-high 28 this season - and must brace for Allen, who has a sack in each of the last four games among Minnesota's 15 sacks. One way to keep the Vikings from pressuring Skelton is to jump-start the NFL's No. 27 rushing offense at 83.2 yards per game, although Minnesota's No. 11 rushing defense (96.0) may have something to say about that. Undrafted rookie William Powell, the third-string running back, had 70 yards on 13 carries last week in his first start. Arizona's No. 3 defense is third in sacks with 19, led by linebacker Daryl Washington's four. The Cardinals are also eighth in the league with a plus-4 turnover margin.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (4-2): Minnesota also must do a better job of protecting its quarterback as Christian Ponder has been sacked 13 times, tied for 11th-most in the league. Ponder went down four times last week, but did have time to complete 11 passes for 133 yards to Percy Harvin, who leads the NFL with 49 receptions. Minnesota's other top offensive weapon - running back Adrian Peterson - is seventh in the NFL with 499 yards, and leads the league's No. 8 rushing attack which produces 126.8 per game. The Vikings have lost five fumbles - seventh-worst in the NFL - and must do a better job protecting the ball against Arizona's opportunistic defense.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Skelton is 8-4 as a starter.

2. Ponder didn't throw an interception in his first four games this season but has thrown four in his last two contests.

3. The teams have met four straight seasons with Minnesota winning three, including a 34-10 victory in 2011 when Peterson rushed for three touchdowns and 122 yards.


MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Arizona +6.5. I will probably tease it to 7. But I do like Arizona here. Even without kolb. Skelton did win the starting job to start the season. He has some game and wants to prove it.

INDIANA AT NAVY

Indiana will try to snap a four-game losing streak and solve Navy's triple option offense when it visits the Midshipmen for the first time on Saturday. The Hoosiers have been outscored by only 24 points during their slide, including a 52-49 loss to Ohio State last week. Indiana's rushing defense, 109rd among the 120 FBS teams, will face the No. 14 rushing offense. Navy has won two straight and three of four since opening the season with losses to Notre Dame and Penn State. The Midshipmen have averaged only 15.2 points in their five games against FBS teams, but 29.5 in their last two.

TV:
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network. LINE: Navy -3.5

ABOUT INDIANA (2-4):
The Hoosiers trailed the Buckeyes 52-34 before scoring twice in the final 1:40 to record their highest point total against Ohio State. Sophomore Cameron Coffman has done an admirable job filling in for starter Tre Roberson, who broke his leg in the second game and is out for the season. Coffman has completed 62.8 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception while running the high-tempo offense. Running back Stephen Houston leads the Hoosiers with six touchdowns and has scored in every game while wide receiver Shane Wynn has a team-high 31 receptions and five scores. Defensive tackle Adam Replogle leads Big Ten linemen with 6.8 tackles per game.

ABOUT NAVY (3-3):
The Midshipmen's 31-13 victory over Central Michigan last Friday featured three touchdown passes by quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who was 6-of-11 for 134 yards - 83 on the scoring plays. Navy, which averages 233.3 yards rushing, is 117th in the country in passing offense at 119.5 yards per game, with only 87 passing attempts against 305 rushes. Reynolds will start at quarterback Saturday as Trey Miller continues to nurse an ankle injury suffered during Navy's 28-21 overtime victory at Air Force on Oct. 6. The Midshipmen allowed 172.3 yards rushing per game, which could tempt Indiana to grind it out on the ground and keep Navy's option offense off the field.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Indiana has scored 24 or more points in six straight games during the same season for the second time in school history. The 1988 team also opened with six such contests.

2. Reynolds became the first Navy quarterback since Chris McCoy in 1997 to throw three touchdown passes in a game.

3. Indiana won the previous two meetings, 38-35 in 1985 and 52-29 in 1986.

MONEYLINE COVERS -  I like Indiana here +3.5. I like it a lot.

UTAH AT OREGON STATE

Oregon State is shooting for a 6-0 mark for the first time since 1907 - and also trying to become bowl eligible the quickest in program history - when it hosts Utah on Saturday. The No. 11 Beavers, 3-0 in conference play for the first time since 1968, have lost four of their last five against the Utes, who are trying to avoid starting 0-4 in the Pac-12 for second straight year. A key to the game will be whether Utah can run the ball effectively against the Beavers. The Utes are No. 112 in the nation in rushing, while Oregon State ranks fourth in the country in run defense.
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: Oregon State -10.5
ABOUT UTAH (2-4, 0-3 Pac-12): While the run game is still struggling to get untracked, the Utes are also searching for the right quarterback to lead their offense. Travis Wilson made his first career start last weekend against UCLA and the freshman completed 23 of 33 passes for 220 yards and an interception in a 21-14 loss. Jon Hays, a senior, started the previous four games and threw six touchdown passes with one interception in that span. Coach Kyle Whittingham, though, said Monday that Wilson will start against Oregon State.
ABOUT OREGON STATE (5-0, 3-0): Sean Mannion, the second-ranked quarterback in the Pac-12, remains sidelined after undergoing minor knee surgery last week. Cody Vaz will start for a second consecutive game. Vaz threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s victory against Brigham Young and was not intercepted. He benefits from a strong receiving corps led by Brandin Cooks and Markus Wheaton. Cooks ranks second in the nation in receiving yards per game (131.8). Wheaton has six receiving touchdowns in the last four games and one rushing.
EXTRA POINTS 1. Oregon State defensive end Scott Crichton has eight of his team’s 14 sacks, which ranks No. 4 nationally, while Jordan Poyer has five interceptions for the Beavers, second-most in the nation.
2. Utah punter Sean Sellwood leads the country at 48.3 yards per punt.
3. Utah receiver Dres Anderson has been the team’s top target with 22 catches for 233 yards and two scores, while three of Kenneth Scott’s 10 receptions have gone for touchdowns.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I like Oregon State here -9.5

WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA

After defeating Stanford, Washington climbed into the Top 25 for the first time in three years. Back-to-back losses since, however, have not only knocked them out of the poll but into fifth place in the Pac-12 North Division. The Huskies have finally finished a brutal stretch of games where they face four ranked teams, three of which have national title hopes. How they'll respond the rest of the way beginning with Saturday's game at Arizona will define their season.

Arizona has lost three straight including a heartbreaker at Stanford last time out. The Wildcats led by 14 points in the fourth quarter only to lose the wild 54-48 affair in overtime. Coach Rich Rodriguez has certainly lit a fire in the Arizona offense. In his first season in the desert, the Wildcats average 37 points, but Rodriguez is still searching for his first Pac-12 victory.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network. LINE: Arizona -7.5

ABOUT WASHINGTON (3-3, 1-2 Pac-12): For the most part, the Huskies were dominated by USC in their 24-14 loss last week. Washington, however, had a chance to make it a one-possession game in the fourth quarter but quarterback Keith Price was stripped inside the red zone once and later was responsible for two more turnovers to end the Huskies' upset hopes. Washington continues to have problems protecting Price. The offensive line has four first-year starters and they surrendered five sacks last week, leaving the junior skittish to stay in the pocket. The Huskies have won 11 of the past 17 games against Arizona, including a 42-31 victory last year at home as tailback Chris Polk scored five times.

ABOUT ARIZONA (3-3, 0-3): The Wildcats have also struggled playing three straight ranked opponents and four in its first six games. While pressuring Price is a priority, Arizona is ranked 107th in the nation in sacks. The Wildcats are first in the conference in passing offense but may look to pound the ball against Washington, which ranks last in the Pac-12 in run defense. Senior quarterback Matt Scott set Pac-12 records for pass attempts (69) and completions (45) in the loss at Stanford and the high-octane attack ran a record 109 offensive plays. The Wildcats are coming off their only open date this season and are 3-1 at home.

 EXTRA POINTS

1. Washington has turned the ball over nine times in its last two games. 

 2. The home team has won the past four meetings.

3. Washington has failed to score more than 21 points against an FBS school this season.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Like Washington here +7.5

PENN STATE AT IOWA

Iowa and Penn State bring identical 4-2 records and 2-0 Big Ten marks to this intra-divisional contest at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. The host Hawkeyes are tied for first place with Michigan in the Legends Division while Penn State is second to Ohio State (7-0, 3-0) at the top of the Leaders Division. The big difference is that the Hawkeyes are eligible to play in the Dec. 1 Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis while the Nittany Lions are ineligible for postseason play.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network  LINE: Iowa -3

ABOUT PENN STATE (4-2, 2-0 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions were idle last week after recording a 39-28 come-from-behind victory over Northwestern on Oct. 6, the team's fourth straight win. Penn State trailed by 11 points entering the fourth quarter before quarterback Matt McGloin engineered a pair of 80-plus yard drives and scored the go-ahead touchdown on a five-yard run with 2:37 remaining. The Nittany Lions' defense, led by senior linebackers Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, is allowing only 16 points per game which ranks 15th nationally. Penn State has outscored the opposition 52-0 in the first quarter this season.

ABOUT IOWA (4-2, 2-0): The Hawkeyes have bounced back from a shocking home loss to Central Michigan to win back-to-back Big Ten games, including a 19-16 double overtime thriller at Michigan State last Saturday. That also was Kirk Ferentz's 100th victory at Iowa, making him the 12th Big Ten coach to reach that milestone. The Hawkeyes have done it with a strong defense led by junior linebacker Anthony Hitchens that is yielding only 317 yards and 17.2 points per game and has forced 10 turnovers in its last five games. Sophomore Mark Weisman, a walk-on who began his career at Air Force, has rushed for more than 100 yards in four straight games and scored eight touchdowns this season to lead an Iowa offense averaging 27 points in its last four games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Hitchens leads the NCAA with 78 tackles in six games, an average of 13 per game.

2. McGloin has had four straight 200-yard passing games and leads the Big Ten in passing with an average of 249.8 yards. He has thrown 12 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

3. Weisman is questionable after spraining his right ankle while scoring a touchdown at Michigan State last week.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Iowa here -3. I like Penn State against any mediocre team but I think Iowa is pretty good and they are at home. Like Iowa here!

Brigham Young at Notre Dame

Off to its first 6-0 start since 2002, Notre Dame is climbing the polls behind a defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in its last four games. One week before their much-anticipated game at Oklahoma, the No. 5 Fighting Irish host fellow independent Brigham Young, which faded in the fourth quarter last Saturday in a 42-24 loss to Oregon State. Notre Dame and BYU feature two of the top defensive teams in the nation, but the Irish have moved to another level in recent weeks. The Irish rank first in the nation in red zone defense, and have limited each of their past five opponents to less than 300 total yards. Notre Dame's fifth-ranked pass-efficiency defense could mean trouble for Cougars quarterback Riley Nelson, who threw three interceptions last week after sitting out the previous two games with a back injury.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Notre Dame -13.5

ABOUT BYU (4-3): BYU was allowing 8.8 points per game before Oregon State snapped the Cougars’ 12-game streak of holding opponents to less than 300 total yards by exploding for 42 points on 450 total yards and five touchdowns. Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Brandon Ogletree lead the defense with 7.5 sacks and 57 tackles, respectively. On offense, 17-year old freshman Jamaal Williams has a team-high five rushing touchdowns, while wide receiver Cody Hoffman has caught a pass in 26 straight games, tied for the 10th-longest streak in the nation. Nelson received a vote of confidence from coach Bronco Mendenhall after last week’s game, but will need to improve on his 6-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (6-0): While the Irish defense has allowed only 8.6 points per game, their quarterback situation remains unsettled. Redshirt freshman Everett Golson sustained a concussion in last Saturday’s 20-13 overtime victory over Stanford, and will likely share time with Tommy Rees even if he’s cleared to play. Golson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but is also responsible for all seven turnovers by the Irish. Tight end Tyler Eifert has 246 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 15 catches, while senior linebacker Manti Te'o has entered the Heisman Trophy race after recording a team-high 59 tackles and two fumble recoveries with three interceptions. Notre Dame has already forced 15 turnovers through its first six games after causing 14 all of last season.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Irish are 146-46-2 in October games at Notre Dame Stadium.

2. BYU has outscored opponents 64-6 in the second quarter.

3. Notre Dame is 6-1 in its last seven games decided by a touchdown or less.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Notre Dame here - 13 and feel quite good about it. This game is the game I feel the best about out of all the games this weekend. I am a way bigger fan of BYU than Notre Dame. But it is about picking the winner. Notre Dame -13.

Auburn at Vanderbilt

In the 41 all-time meetings between Auburn and Vanderbilt, the series is tied at 20-20-1. While the Tigers have won 13 of the past 14 meetings, this road game could prove difficult for an Auburn team off to its worst start since 1998. Vanderbilt’s tough pass defense, a group that ranks third in the SEC (148.2 yards per game), matches up well with Auburn’s lackluster offense, which ranks last in the conference in both total offense (287.5) and scoring (16.2). For the Tigers to earn their first conference win of the season, they’ll look to lean heavily on their ground game and exploit the Commodores’ porous rush defense, which ranks last in the SEC at 203.5 yards per game.

TV: 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC Network. LINE: Vanderbilt -7

ABOUT VANDERBILT (2-4, 1-3 SEC): The Commodores had some encouraging moments in last week’s 31-17 loss to Florida, namely the play of standout junior wideout Jordan Matthews. Quarterback Jordan Rodgers – who has 1,068 yards in the air, but just three touchdowns on the year -- looks to Matthews early and often, as the receiver is second in the SEC with 43 receptions and 617 yards. In addition to a busy day for Rodgers and Matthews in the passing game, tailback Zac Stacy, who enters the game with 99 carries and 499 yards on the season, will be featured heavily. Defensive stalwarts Kenny Ladler and Chase Garnham lead a Commodores defense that has allowed just 22.3 points per game this season.

ABOUT AUBURN (1-5, 0-4): The Tigers hope to hold a lead heading into the final frame, as they have been outscored 62-3 in the fourth quarter this season. In order to establish a lead, the Tigers will try to help their duo of struggling quarterbacks -- Kiehl Frazier, who has eight interceptions, and Clint Moseley -- with a strong commitment to the run. Emerging star sophomore tailback Tre Mason is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with three scores while versatile senior Onterio McCalebb is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with two touchdowns and is third-best in the SEC with 30.6 yards per kickoff return. The Tigers are converting just 29.9 percent of third-downs, so a big day from this duo could be crucial. Senior linebacker Daren Bates is the top tackler in the SEC and figures to be busy again Saturday.

EXTRA POINTS

1. For the first time in 16 seasons, Vanderbilt Stadium is sold out for the second straight conference home game.

2. Auburn has lost six consecutive SEC games and is 9-10 overall since winning the BCS title following the 2010 season.

3. The point total has gone under in four of Auburn's last six games.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with Vandy here -6.5

Monday, October 15, 2012

Weekend Recap

Was a pretty good weekend. My picks were good. If New England Patriots would have won by more than 4 it would have been outstanding! I just make picks and post them here if I feel good about them. Rest assured I am just not making picks on any games just for kicks. I only bet games I have a gut feeling about. I will do a better job of making picks in advance of game day. Since I started this blog I have made my picks the night before the games. I will do better of getting them up earlier in the week. Of the four games I picked and posted, I was right on three. Hopefully I can earn your trust and we can make money together. It is nice finding someone you can trust. I found a guy a year or two ago who was making picks on youtube and I kept going to him each week because he was money. Some people just have a knack at picking games. Or some people are just more lucky. It is nice to find a source of help on picking games. But by all means never pay for picks. That is just stupid.

DENVER AT SAN DIEGO

It is only Week 6 in the NFL, but Monday night's game between the Denver Broncos and host San Diego Chargers should go a long way in determining the AFC West winner. With Oakland and Kansas City not expected to contend for the division title, San Diego has the opportunity to take a two-game lead on Denver, the defending AFC West champion and only other legitimate threat. The Chargers are 9-3 against the Broncos since quarterback Philip Rivers took the reins in 2007, while Denver quarterback Peyton Manning is 4-5 all-time against San Diego and has lost five of the last six meetings.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Chargers -1, O/U 49.5

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-3):
Denver couldn't handle Tom Brady and the Patriots' hurry-up offense and lost at New England 31-21 last week. The Patriots recorded a team-record 35 first downs and kept the Broncos' defense on the field for 35:49, a trend which must be reversed if Denver expects to win. Another issue is wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who made nine receptions for a career-high 180 yards against the Patriots, but lost a fumble for the third straight week. Manning faces San Diego for the first time in a Denver uniform. He has performed admirably as a Bronco - except for the first quarter in Atlanta when he threw three interceptions - while appearing 100 percent healthy following neck surgeries which forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. Denver will face the NFL's No. 5 rushing defense, and needs Willis McGahee to repeat his 117-yard rushing performance in last season's win.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-2): San Diego led 24-14 last week before previously winless New Orleans scored the game's final 17 points to deny the Chargers a second consecutive 4-1 start. Rivers has been sacked 14 times, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, and faces two of the league's top pass rushers in Denver's Von Miller (five sacks) and Elvis Dumervil (three). Running back Ryan Mathews is expected to regain his starting spot Monday despite not being on the field during the Chargers' final drive against the Saints. He had 80 yards rushing and 59 receiving against New Orleans. Mathews, who has shared time in the backfield with Jackie Battle and Ronnie Brown, must hang onto the ball: He has 10 fumbles (five lost) in 29 career games. The Broncos' minus-6 turnover differential could play right into the hands of an opportunistic Chargers' defense which has six interceptions and recovered four fumbles.

EXTRA POINTS

1. McGahee is the only RB to rush for more than 100 yards against the Chargers in their last 12 games.

2. Mathews has rushed for more than 100 yards in his three games against Denver (127.3 average) with three touchdowns.

3. Denver snapped a four-game losing streak to San Diego with a 16-13 victory in overtime in the second meeting last season. This will be the fourth encounter on Monday Night Football since 2007 - the Chargers won the last meeting 35-10 in 2010.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with San Diego here. 

Saturday, October 13, 2012

INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW YORK JETS

THE STORY: While New York Jets fans have begun clamoring for Tebow Time to begin, head coach Rex Ryan says Mark Sanchez is still his starting quarterback - at least for now. Sanchez faces one of the most pivotal games of his career Sunday as he leads the stumbling Jets into a home date with the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets had a glorious opportunity to knock off the unbeaten Houston Texans last Monday, but bad personnel management and more Sanchez mistakes ultimately proved costly.

The Colts have no such concerns at their primary skill position. Rookie quarterback Andrew Luck has exceeded preseason expectations, throwing for more than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns over his first four games. Indianapolis comes in on a high after storming back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Green Bay Packers 30-27 last weekend. Luck and Reggie Wayne tore the Packers secondary to ribbons, with Luck amassing 362 passing yards and Wayne hauling in the game-winning TD pass as part of a 212-yard performance.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jets -3, O/U 43.

ABOUT THE COLTS (2-2): With hearts still heavy following the news that head coach Chuck Pagano is battling leukemia, Indianapolis earned an emotional victory over Green Bay - and fittingly gave the game ball to Pagano. It wasn't all good news for the Colts, who learned they'll be without starting running back Donald Brown for up to three weeks after undergoing knee surgery. Rookie Vick Ballard has been promoted to the starting role, with Delone Carter expected to back him up.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-3): Ryan's faith in Sanchez isn't shared by frustrated fans, who made their feelings known Monday night by repeatedly booing the lackluster Jets offense. Sanchez has failed to complete more than 50 percent of his passes in any game since the season opener, and has just two touchdowns against five interceptions over his last three outings. Sanchez does have one thing working in his favor Sunday as popular target Dustin Keller is expected to return. The skilled tight end has been out since Week 1 with a hamstring injury.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Luck is tops among AFC quarterbacks with 104 rushing yards. Tebow leads in career rushing among AFC QBs with 717 yards.

2. Wayne needs just two more catches to become the 14th player in league history to record 900 career receptions.

3. The Jets are 4-0 when RB Shonn Greene rushes for more than 100 yards, but he hasn't reached that mark since Week 14 of the 2011 season.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with the Jets here -3 and feel quite good about it.

DALLAS AT BALTIMORE

THE STORY: The Dallas Cowboys have had nearly two weeks to figure out what went wrong against the Chicago Bears and fix their turnover-prone offense. A trip to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon will test any weaknesses Tony Romo and company still have. The Ravens forced four turnovers in a win at Kansas City in Week 5 and are riding a three-game winning streak. The Cowboys committed five turnovers against the Bears and have struggled offensively in each of the last three games. Dallas’ offensive line struggles, as well as a lackluster running attack, have contributed to Romo’s difficulties over the last three games. DeMarco Murray has been held to 106 yards on the ground the last three games. The one thing the Cowboys have done exceptionally well is defend the pass, which could shift more responsibility to Ravens running back Ray Rice.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Ravens -3.5, O/U 43.5

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-2): Romo threw five interceptions against Chicago in a Monday night game and has two touchdowns against seven interceptions in the last three games combined. Two picks against the Bears were returned for touchdowns and Romo was eventually replaced in the fourth quarter by Kyle Orton. Romo will be back as the starter after the bye week and Dallas is hoping an extra week will give the offensive line a chance to develop more chemistry. While Romo’s woes have partially been due to bad decision-making, he has been under constant pressure the last three games and Murray has been dropped for a loss 11 times in the last two contests. Coordinator Rob Ryan’s defense has been the bright spot, ranking first in opposing passing yards thanks to free-agent cornerback Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-1): Baltimore was unimpressive in a 9-6 victory at Kansas City in Week 5 but forced four turnovers to seal the win. The Ravens were carried by their offense early in the season but have gotten stronger on the other side of the ball the as quarterback Joe Flacco and the offense have slipped. Flacco was held to just 187 yards and was picked off once in Kansas City after piling up 738 yards combined the two previous weeks. The Chiefs used a strong pass rush and a pair of strong cornerbacks to keep Flacco in check, a strategy the Cowboys have the personnel to mimic. One thing Dallas has not shown it can do is take on a defense as sound as Baltimore. The Ravens are strong up front and are third in the AFC with a plus-4 turnover differential.

EXTRA POINTS


1. Dallas’ secondary took a hit against Chicago when S Barry Church was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. Cowboys S Matt Johnson (hamstring) could play Sunday for the first time this season.

2. Rice has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in four of five games in 2012.

3. Dallas NT Jay Ratliff (ankle), DE Kenyon Coleman (knee), LB Anthony Spencer (pectoral) and LB Alex Albright (neck) are all expected to play on Sunday.

MONEYLINE COVERS - Going with Dallas here. No rhyme or reason really just going with my gut. Dallas covers! Hopefully my picks will earn your trust and you go with me.

NEW ENGLAND AT SEATTLE

THE STORY: The New England Patriots have found a pounding rushing attack to go along with Tom Brady and the rest of the offense. That has led to 83 points in the last two games. The Seattle Seahawks own the No. 3 rushing defense in the league and have shown a tendency to pull games out late. The Seahawks might not be as explosive offensively as New England but they have yet to lose at home and are allowing an average of only 14.0 points. The Patriots’ weakness defensively has been against the pass, which matches up nicely against Seattle’s inability to throw the ball. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson and the offense are averaging 147 yards through the air, better only than the Jacksonville Jaguars. That has put more pressure on running back Marshawn Lynch, who is averaging over 100 yards per game.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -3.5, O/U 44.5

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (3-2): New England leads the league in scoring and is averaging 165.4 yards on the ground behind Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. The Patriots have gone over 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games for the first time since 1978 and used the ground game along with Brady’s passing to set a franchise record with 35 first downs in a 31-21 win over the Denver Broncos last week. While the offense looks to be on par with the record-setting 2007 unit, the biggest change to the team this season has been in the front seven on defense, where New England is now getting to the quarterback and stopping the run. The Patriots are tied for the league lead with nine forced fumbles and are getting younger on that side of the ball with three rookies in crucial roles.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (3-2): Seattle has the personnel to disrupt Brady and the passing game, with big cornerbacks on the outside. Rookie Bruce Irvin leads NFL rookies with 4.5 sacks and the Seahawks are tied for fifth in the NFL with 16 sacks. The defense has kept the team in games long enough for Wilson to find some magic in the final seconds. He led a pair of scoring drives in the second half at Carolina last week before the defense closed out the 16-12 victory. Seattle is 2-0 at home and has allowed a total of 19 points at CenturyLink Field. Keeping Brady and company off the field for as long as possible will be up to Wilson and Lynch. Wilson has been picked off six times in five games, with five of those interceptions coming in the last two contests.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Patriots are 38-11 against NFC teams under coach Bill Belichick, including a 24-21 victory at Seattle on Dec. 7, 2008. Matt Cassel was at quarterback for New England in that one.

2. NFC West teams are 10-0 at home this season. NFC West teams have gone 4-0 against the AFC East, including the Arizona Cardinals beating the Patriots in Week 2.

3. New England TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) has missed the last three weeks but has been practicing. He is listed as questionable.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am going with the Patriots -4 and feel quite good about it. Seattle is a tuff place to play but I think New England looks at the Seahawks like they look at Arizona. New England lost to Arizona. They are not gona lose again to this division. Feel pretty good about this bet.

DETROIT LIONS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

THE STORY: The Detroit Lions are hoping the bye week was just what they needed. Detroit enters its Week 6 meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles having lost three straight games following a season-opening victory over St. Louis. The Lions have put up a fight in the setbacks, however, as each loss was by eight points or less. Considered the luckiest 2-0 team in the league after two weeks, Philadelphia has dropped two of its last three contests. The Eagles are coming off a 16-14 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday in which Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham booted a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Philadelphia has won five straight meetings with the Lions, scoring at least 30 points in each of the last three victories.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Eagles -3.5, O/U 47.5
ABOUT THE LIONS (1-3): Quarterback Matthew Stafford has passed for 3,101 yards since December 2011, the third-highest total in the league. Detroit is 10-0 when Stafford has a rating of at least 105. Joique Bell ranks third among NFL running backs with 175 receiving yards. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is first in the league with 46 touchdown receptions since 2008. Detroit is 0-2 on the road thus far this season and has dropped five of its last six away from home.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-2): While quarterback Michael Vick has had trouble holding on to the ball, he has done a better job tossing it lately. After throwing six interceptions in the first two games of the season, Vick has gone three straight contests without a pick. Since 2010, Vick is the only player in the league with over 7,500 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing. The Eagles are 10-1 when running back LeSean McCoy rushes for 100 yards. Philadelphia is seeking its first 3-0 start at home since 2005.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Lions have allowed touchdowns on kickoff and punt returns in each of their last two games.
2. Vick has eight fumbles, three more than any other player in the league. His five lost fumbles also lead the NFL.
3. Stafford has thrown only three touchdown passes this season after tossing for 41 scores last year.

MONEYLINE COVERS - I am betting Detroit to win straight up. If you wana play it safe you can take the +3.5. But I feel Detroit winning is safe. 

Saturday, October 6, 2012

UCLA AT CALIFORNIA

Led by the nation's fourth-best running game, Jim Mora's has his high-octane UCLA offense off to a flying start. His next test, however, is one the Bruins haven't passed in more than a decade. UCLA visits California for a Pac-12 Conference matchup Saturday and the Bruins haven't won in Berkeley in 14 years. While breaking that streak would seem promising as the favored Bruins enter the contest 4-1 and Cal has struggled to a 1-4 start, Mora knows that Cal's four losses have come against teams that have combined to go 16-3. UCLA running back Johnathan Franklin hopes to carry the torch for the Bruins. He is third in the NCAA in rushing and the Bears have been gashed on the ground for more than 174 yards per game.
TV: 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network. LINE: UCLA -3
ABOUT UCLA (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12 South): Memorial Stadium has been a house of horrors for UCLA. The Bruins have lost six consecutive games there by a combined score of 222-129. The last time UCLA ventured into Berkeley it lost 35-7 in 2010. But Mora has UCLA rolling and they rebounded from their first loss, a home upset at the hands of Oregon State, by hammering Colorado on the road last week.  The Bruins average 36.8 points per game and lead the Pac-12 in total yards and should be able to attack the Bears at their weakness - run defense. Franklin has 697 yards on the ground and a big game could put him back in the Heisman Trophy discussion.
ABOUT CALIFORNIA (1-4, 0-2 Pac-12 North): While the Bears are certainly struggling, they have been competitive all season. Cal took No. 12 Ohio State to the wire in Columbus, Ohio, and then battled Matt Barkley and conference powerhouse USC tightly for three quarters. Last week Cal trailed a strong Arizona State team by a field goal with 10 minutes to play before falling 27-17. UCLA is the fourth straight team Cal has faced that has received votes in the Top 25 poll and to get over the hump, Cal has to slow down UCLA’s offense. The Bears’ defense allowed at least 27 points in every game this season and is 10th in the Pac-12 in scoring defense having allowed 30.2 points per game.
EXTRA POINTS
1. UCLA beat Cal 31-14 last season at the Rose Bowl.
2. Cal QB Zach Maynard was intercepted by UCLA’s Tevin McDonald three times in last year’s game.
3. Cal back Isi Sofele reached 2,000 career rushing yards last week and has 2,075 after racking up 105 yards versus Arizona State. He is 429 yards shy of Cal's all-time top-10 list in career rushing yards.

MONEYLINE COVERS - My pick is California +3. Watched them against Arizona State. They did not look that bad. I think Arizona state will end up being the second best team in the Pac 12. That is why I am on Missouri -7 today. Because Missouri beat ASU. Cal really needs this game plus they are at home.

MICHIGAN STATE AT INDIANA

Michigan State has played one of the nation's tougher early-season schedules - and it is reflected in the team's record. The Spartans will look to avoid a second consecutive conference defeat when they visit Indiana on Saturday. Last week's home loss to Ohio State dropped Michigan State out of the Top 25, halting a run of 34 consecutive weeks in which the team had been ranked. The Spartans have dominated the rivalry against the defensively-challenged Hoosiers, winning three straight and seven of eight, including a 55-3 romp last season that clinched a berth in the inaugural Big Ten title game.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network. LINE: Michigan State -15.5

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (3-2, 0-1 Big Ten Legends): The Spartans have struggled to get their offense untracked and have already failed to surpass 17 points three times. Part of that stemmed from playing three ranked opponents in September for the first time in 25 years, but the passing game has been maddeningly inconsistent. After watching his receivers drop 18 balls from quarterback Andre Maxwell in the past three games, coach Mark Dantonio took one step to address the shortcomings by elevating highly-touted freshman Aaron Burbridge into the starting lineup. The running game has fluctuated wildly, with running Le'Veon Bell churning out a pair of 200-yard games while being held to 77 yards or fewer three times.

ABOUT INDIANA (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten Leaders): The Hoosiers fell behind by 27 points before a late rally came up short in a 44-29 loss at Northwestern last week. A defense that was shredded for an average of more than 46 points in the final seven games last season has shown little sign of improvent, yielding 85 points in back-to-back losses to Ball State and Northwestern and getting steamrolled for 704 total yards against the Wildcats. Indiana also has major issues on the other side of the ball after starting quarterback Tre Roberson suffered a broken leg in the season opener. Cameron Coffman, a junior college transfer, has started the past two games but was relieved by true freshman Nate Sudfeld in both.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Spartans have not lost consecutive Big Ten games in the same season since October 2009.

2. Saturday's matchup will be Indiana's Homecoming. Its last win over the Spartans came on Homecoming weekend in 2006.

3. The winner of the game will be presented with the Old Brass Spittoon, continuing a tradition in the rivalry that dates to 1950.

MONEYLINE COVERS - My pick is Indiana +15.5. They are at home and they are have lost 2 in  row. They will keep it close.